XXXXXXX July
21 - 2005 XXXXXXX
NB:
COMPILERS PERSONAL COMMENTS IN UPPER
CASE
COINCIDENCE
AND PROBABLILITY:
Three terms to consider; coincidence, plausible
deniability, and balance of probabilities.
“Coincidences” occur at a statistically predictable
rate. When similarly aligned coincidences
occur repeatedly, an issue arises.
A
strategy of “plausible deniability” is used by the
architects and others in support of the “coincidence
theory” of events. Under this
strategy, some explanation is advanced which although unlikely,
is “plausible”. This approach will
usually evoke, and relies upon the listener’s emotional
preferences and biases to dismiss a more probable explanation.
Some of the “plausible deniability” scenarios enter the
realm of “magical thinking”,
such as the
A strategy of analysis using “Balance of
probabilities”, examines the likelihood of an event or
explanation being accurate. This
approach advances the explanation of an event or belief, which is
statistically most likely to have occurred.
This approach relies on objective analysis of the evidence,
making best efforts to estimate probability of a coincidence
occurring, and attempts to remove from the analysis, the
listener’s emotional preferences and biases to dismiss some
other explanation. The key
problem with this approach is that it requires emotional
detachment on the part of the evaluator.
Although
the above is easy to prescribe it is far more difficult to
implement.
-
doug
“NOTABLES”
Bush Picks Roberts for Supreme Court
Last week, John Roberts wrote Bush a blank check.
A Conservative Total for U.S. Aid to Israel: $91
Billion—and Counting
London Mayor: Likud, Hamas are 'two sides of the same
coin'
Draft Iraqi charter backs Islamic law
End of the US-China honeymoon
Fatal H5N1 Bird Flu in Suburban Jakarta Family
Confirmed
Boxun Description Of Ebola In China
“HUMOR
/ ODDITIES”
Thorough Examination
Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont is vowing
to consider the Roberts nomination "as thoroughly and
carefully as the American people expect and deserve"...
which means we'll soon know whether Roberts ever smoked pot or
employed an illegal alien as a nanny.
Bush Timetable
President Bush says he decided to announce his decision last
night because he wants to start the confirmation process as soon
as possible, give Roberts a chance to wrap up his caseload, and
get the news media to completely forget about the White House CIA
leak story.
“UNITED
STATES”
Bush Picks Roberts for Supreme Court
Last week, John Roberts wrote Bush a blank check. SLATE-MSN
The
opinion says that Congress authorized the president to set up
whatever military tribunal he deems appropriate when it
authorized him to use "all necessary and appropriate
force" to fight terrorism in response to 9/11. While the
president has claimed the authority only to try foreign suspects
before the tribunals, there's nothing in the Hamdan opinion that
stops him from extending their reach to any other suspected
terrorist, American citizens included. This amounts to a free
hand—and one Bush is not shy about extending. The
administration has already devised its own tribunals to review
its claims that the
PRESIDENTIAL-MILITARY LAW NOW SUPERCEDES CIVILIAN
LAW
Padilla Lawyer: Charge Him or Release Him
a Bush administration lawyer told the court that
the president must have authority to indefinitely detain
suspected terrorists who come to the
With
Roberts' last minute pick, is the fix in for a future Supreme
Court case involving Bush's and Cheney's violation of the
Constitution about waging an illegal war in
FBI Keeping Lengthy Files on Groups Opposed to Bush's
Policies
Department of Homeland Security Surveillance Vehicle
Photos
SIMILAR TO UN COLOR PATTERN
CIA Leak Investigation Focuses
on Ari Fleischer
Niger
and Iraq: the war's biggest lie?
SUNDAY HERALD - JULY 13/03
Neil
Mackay reveals why everyone now accepts that claims Saddam
Hussein got uranium from
Link to Cheney deepens ‘leak-gate’ scandal BOSTON GLOBE
The
news that Vice President Dick Cheney’s chief of staff was
the second possible source in the leaking of the identity of a
CIA agent to Time magazine elevates the scandal to a whole new
level. It is bad enough for Karl Rove to be accused of being a
leaker, since he is President Bush’s chief political
strategist.
Flashback: Bolton Pushed Niger-Uranium - Tried to Hide his Tracks and Staff Lied to Congress
“
What
do you do when somebody wants to publish a book that says
you’re completely wrong? If you’re Alan Dershowitz, the
prominent Harvard law professor, and the book is Norman
Finkelstein’s Beyond Chutzpah: On the Misuse of
Anti-Semitism and the Abuse of History, you write the governor of
IN A FREE AND DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY
…
Zionism's Useful Idiots
KURT NIMMO
That's
you and me, taxpaying
A Conservative Total for U.S. Aid to Israel: $91
Billion—and Counting
FEB/01
The
common figure given for
American
taxpayers will be paying out of their pockets about $227,000 per
Jewish settler.
WHO RUNS THE
London Mayor: Likud, Hamas are 'two sides of the same
coin'
London
Mayor Ken Livingstone told Sky News on Tuesday that he does not
distinguish between members of Likud and Hamas, branding them as
"two sides of the same coin."
HAMAS JUSTIFIES LIKUD’S GENOCIDAL AGENDA
RECALL: Israeli Roots of Hamas Are Being Exposed LAROUCHE JAN 18/02
RECALL:
Hamas history tied to Israel UPI Terrorism Correspondent
JUNE/02
“MIDDLE
EAST”
Bush Taps Roberts II
In Roberts, President Bush has chosen a
solid anti-abortion nominee for the court. And that’s good,
since we’re going to need as many recruits as possible when
we're still in Iraq in 20 years.
Western policies are to blame, says Livingstone
"This
particular strand of extremism was funded by the West in
RECALL: Osama bin Laden, AKA CIA
Asset "Tim Osman"
WRH COMPENDIUM
Draft Iraqi charter backs Islamic law
A
working draft of a chapter of the new
Iraqi Police Loose Control Over Mosul
Iraq : Fallujah Under Siege Again
Now America accuses Iran of complicity in World Trade Center attack UK TELEGRAPH
RECALL: At Least 7 of the 9/11 Hijackers are Still Alive WRH
UK Soldiers to Face War Crimes
Three
British soldiers are to be court martialled in
'25,000 Iraqis killed since US invasion'
About
25,000 people have been killed and 42,000 injured in
NB: THIS REPORT IS BASED
EXCLUSIVELY ON MEDIA ACCOUNTS OF VIOLENT
DEATHS, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE:
-DISEASE DEATHS (INFECTIONS, HEART/STROKE,
INFANT AND CHRONIC)
-NON-REPORTED DEATHS (FALLUJAH, ETC)
-FROM STUDY BELOW:
“One project has kept a running estimate of press accounts of the number of Iraqi citizens killed by coalition forces: at present, the estimated range is 13000–15000 (http://www.iraqbodycount.net). Aside from the likelihood that press accounts are incomplete, this source does not record deaths that are the indirect result of the armed conflict. Other sources place the death toll much higher.”
100,000 Iraqi Civilian Deaths Increase Since War Oct 28/04
They
randomly selected 33 neighborhoods of 30 homes from across
The researchers found that the majority of deaths were attributed to violence, which were primarily the result of military actions by Coalition forces. Most of those killed by Coalition forces were women and children.
ORICINAL
PAPER: “Mortality before and after the 2003
invasion of
Findings
The
risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI
1·6–4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the
preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were
reported in one cluster in the city of
Interpretation
Making
conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess
deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of
FOR FULL TEXT - CONTACT ME
“FOREIGN
AFFAIRS”
The
Phoenix Project: A Lost Opportunity
Italy Seeks Arrest of 6 More CIA Agents in Cleric
Kidnapping
Italian
prosecutors today sought arrest warrants for six more people they
say are U.S. Central Intelligence Agency operatives who helped
kidnap an Egyptian Muslim preacher from a Milan street more than
two years ago.
Oil manoeuvres by China, India, challenge US
End of the US-China honeymoon
The Iraq connection GUARDIAN
To
insist, as Tony Blair, Jack Straw and John Reid all have, that
there is no connection whatsoever between
British gov't protests at Iran claims over London
bombings
ME THINKS .. HE PROTESTETH TOO MUCH
Bomb 'mastermind' was victim of name confusion
A
man widely reported to have slipped into
Experts yet to determine
explosives London bombers used
I GUESS THEY FORGOT TO
USE THEIR DETECTION & ANALYSIS INSTUMENTS
(GAS-CHROMATOGRAPHIC-MASS-SPECTROSCOPY )
Who shorted British pound? Currency fell 6% in
10 days before London terror attacks
it
appears some profited by short selling the British pound in the
10 days leading up to the attacks. The pound fell about 6 percent
(approximately 1.82 to 1.72) against the dollar for no apparent
reason – until, of course, the terror attacks sent the
British markets reeling still further. "This was an almost
unprecedented weakness and far too sharp to be a
coincidence," one economist with more than 35 years of
experience in the investment industry [said]."
London Bombs: Suspect Bomber's Puzzling Israel Visit
"Israeli
authorities have revealed that one of the suspects in the London
bombings visited Israel in 2003, but that they have no evidence
to link him to a suicide attack against a Tel Aviv night club
carried out shortly afterwards by two British nationals of
Pakistani origin.
Confirmation: Netanyahu and Giuliani in same hotel on
7/7
“MILITARY
/ INTELLIGENCE / SECURITY”
USC Hacked
A University of Southern California
database containing personal information on about 270,000 past
applicants has been hacked. But it shouldn't be hard to find the
culprits because the only people who would want that kind of
information on USC students are the publishers of remedial math
and English books.
Bin
Laden, Etc Are CIA Stooges - Former US Deputy AG
RECALL: Osama bin Laden, AKA CIA
Asset "Tim Osman"
WRH COMPENDIUM
“ECONOMICS”
GM posts loss, auto giants loses over $1 bln
General
Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) posted an unexpected quarterly loss
on Wednesday as stubbornly high costs for everything from
materials to worker health care outweighed surprisingly strong
car sales and good results from its finance arm.
Kodak Trimming Up to 10,000 More Jobs
Eastman Kodak Co. said Wednesday it is cutting as
many as 10,000 more jobs as the company that turned
picture-taking into a hobby for the masses navigates a tough
transition from film to digital photography.-AP
“DEMOCRACY
/ FREEDOM”
Grannies Busted At AZ Army
Recruiting Center
Several
Raging Grannies, along with an Indymedia journalist (myself),
were arrested for trespassing Wednesday after they entered an
Army recruiting office and attempted to enlist.
“SOCIETY”
a
group of teachers has proposed the word "fail" should
be banned from use in British classrooms and replaced with the
phrase "deferred success" to avoid demoralizing pupils.
Does
Ebonics belong in the curriculum?
Ebonics ("Ebony" + "Phonics")
A
sociologist from the
BUT
… “If you remember the Klan, you couldn't design
a system more diabolically designed to make certain black
students fail in the workplace than allowing them to speak
non-standard English. The point is succeeding in an
increasingly competitive and meritocratic
EBONICS:
African American Vernacular English - Wikipedia
The Lords Prayer-The Ebonic Way
Big Daddy's Rap
The Lord's Prayer
Yo,
Bid Daddy upstairs,
Our Father, who art in heaven
You
be chillin
Hallowed be thy name
So
be yo hood
Thy Kingdom come
You
be sayin' it, I be doin' it
Thy will be done
In
this here hood and yo's
On earth as it is in heaven
Gimme
some eats
Give us this day our daily bread
And
cut me some slack, Blood
And forgive us our trespasses
Sos
I be doin' it to dem dat diss me As we forgive those who
trespasses against us
don't
be pushing me into no jive
And lead us not into temptation
and
keep dem Crips away
But deliver us from evil
'Cause
you always be da Man
For thine is the Kingdom, the power and the glory, forever and
ever.
Aaa-men
Amen
“HEALTH
/ SCIENCE / TECH”
Teflon
Firm Faces Fresh Lawsuit
DuPont
is facing a lawsuit accusing the company of failing to warn
consumers about the health hazards of Teflon non-stick coatings.
Genetically Modified Corn Study Reveals Health Damage
and Cover-Up
When
a German court ordered Monsanto to make public a controversial
90-day rat study on
I DON’T MIND DYING ..
IT JUST ANGERS ME WHEN SOMEONE
ELSE MAKES THAT DECISION FOR ME
The
international partnership dependent on the American space-shuttle
fleet to complete the International Space Station is getting
nervous as the National Aeronautic and Space Administration
pledges to take as much time as it needs to fix the shuttle
Discovery.
“INFECTIOUS
- DISEASES”
Fatal
H5N1 Bird Flu in Suburban Jakarta Family Confirmed
Health
Minister Supari told reporters lab tests from
The origin of the infection is unknown, but pigs without symptoms
have been reported in the same area earlier. The type of flu in
the swine was similar to that of
Transmissible
fatal H5N1 in an urban area like
Lyme
Disease Lookalike Baffles CDC Scientists
Boxun
Description Of Ebola In China
1.
Ebola-SZ type: It was found in Shenzhen of South China.
People contracted the virus showing severe illness, and they were
infected through the contact of blood. Incubation
period is 2-4 weeks, some up to 6 months, other without symptoms.
Those infected people's immunity drops suddenly that triggers
other co-infections and complications. In severe cases,
blood vessels disintegrate; muscular tissues became fluid-like;
patients died of lack of oxygen due to haemorrhage. After
death, the body continues to disintegrate until the carcass
completely disintegrates. Handling bodies is better
to seal the body under low temperature.
2.
Ebola-ST type: It was found in Shantou of South China. People
contracted the virus showing severe illness. Transmission is
unknown. Incubation period: 30-120 days. Infected
people have localized maculopapular rash. Cases occur in the form
of diathesis in the smallest capillaries that lead to necrosis of
the involved tissues. The characteristic of this virus is its
intermittent exacerbation of the symptoms. This virus is
suspected to be the mutated by-product of Ebola virus and other
viruses. The confirmative diagnosis is usually made by the
identification of EB-SZ-like virus in the tissues of deceased
cases.
If
the following report is accurate, and remember Boxun is
reporting from inside
PATRICIA DOYLE COMMENTS: An
Ebola combined with HIV would ensure death and make the virus
more lethal, the HIV would do its job of breaking down the immune
system making the body more vulnerable to Ebola. If
we have Ebolaids, we would have long incubation periods of up to
6 months thus making the tracing of contacts harder and enabling
the virus to spread beyond tribal villages.
It
is really so difficult to rationalize the construction of the
altered Ebola pathogen. Was SARS actually part of thie
bioweapon's research? I always thought that SARS had escaped from
the first military medical university in
I
am wondering if the deaths in and around Quinghai were actually
Ebola/H5N1 or combination of ebola. This may explain WHY the
Chinese are refusing to allow the WHO or any agency from taking
samples. The Chinese had refused to allow ANY research on samples
from suspected H5 victims or even animal samples. Even some
scientists inside
“ENVIRONMENT
/ EARTH”
Campaigning for Oil A 527 helps Alaska's push to open
up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
So-called 527 committees entered the public realm
last year as a tool of campaigns and consultants to win
elections. But in
527 COMMITTEES: non-profit group exempt from taxes
TAX-EXEMPT FOUNDATIONS DO THEIR
WORK AGAIN
“WEATHER”
Emily on the Move
Hurricane Emily is gaining strength and
poised to hit Texas. But the storm wants to wait until the
Supreme Court nomination news is out of the way so it can get
full coverage again on CNN.
NYC Weather
It's been so humid in New York City that
everyone’s tattoos are actually running.
One million flee homes as typhoon hits China
ATLANTIC “HURRICANE” = PACIFIC “TYPHOON”
You
see things and say ‘why’?
But
I dream of things that never were and I say: ‘why not’?
George Bernard Shaw, Back to Methuselah, Part 1, Act 1
Part
of the Ministry of Doug Bracewell